U2 @ Sphere – A Review for Degens

Degens know all about James Dolan’s $2.3 Billion dollar addition to the Vegas skyline. They already know that The Sphere is the world’s largest spherical building, and they’ve already seen spectacular images (if not in person, then definitely in their feeds) of the building’s exterior LED screen, covering 580,000 square feet. Like this:

But none of them had ever stepped foot inside the building. Despite being the only degen to have never before been to Vegas, that honor now belongs to me. Last week I saw the third ever show at the sphere, “U2: UV – Achtung Baby Live at the Sphere.” The experience was so overwhelming that I can only report on it by treating it as four entirely different events.

1. The Sphere – Audio

You might think U2 is a bunch of sexagenarians who have no business playing rock ‘n’ roll. You might think Bono is a preachy liberal, or a neoliberal sellout, and you have no interest in having his politics injected into your concert. You might think any U2 album after Joshua Tree – or better, after War – wasn’t worth $15 at the time it was released, so surely isn’t worth $400 to hear played live 30 years later. You might think U2 are the greatest live large-event band of all time, but you refuse to see them without the founder and heart of the group, Mr. Larry Mullen, Jr.

But none of that matters: the audio quality at the Sphere is so mind-blowingly good that you should go see the three Irish old-farts and one younger Dutchmen (Bram van den Berg, standing in for Larry) anyway. The experience bears no resemblance to what you currently think is a stadium concert. The sound is better than anything you’ve ever heard, whether it be at smaller clubs, or in your own audiophile listening room. It’s somehow large and loud yet absolutely intimate at the same time. You hear everything, and you hear it in its own identifiable space. I could have spent the whole concert just listening to Edge’s backup vocals, or van den Berg’s drumming, because I had the ability to listen to those as separate elements.

Even if you only tolerate U2, you would find it worth the price of the ticket (assuming you don’t have to pay scalpers) just to experience the sound in this place. But even if you pass on the U2 residency, promise me this: the very first act that you love that’s scheduled in this building, you must go see them.

2. The Sphere – Visuals

Most reviews of the show spend all their time here, and for good reason: no one has the words to describe the visual experience of the sphere because there are no comparators. You can write the words “16k LED screen, the largest in the world,” but they just don’t mean much, because this is a full body experience. I spent over an hour staring at the initial image on the screen when the doors opened – namely, a series of concrete panels much like the DC metro, though my art historian partner tells me the whole thing was clearly meant to evoke the Roman Pantheon. I knew they weren’t real, but it didn’t matter how many times my seatmates and I said this to one another, they still felt real. The favorite video clip circulating on social media comes from the images displayed during “Even Better than the Real Thing,” and while it’s too tidy to talk about the 30-year old lyrics describing a postmodern future that is now just reality…it still fits.

There are multiple moments in the show where the screen (it’s not even right to call it a screen, because to look at it you have to move your head 45 degrees and look all around you) does something that just melts your mind, and the music becomes background. People continued throughout the show to point at various elements; it was hard to know when to look up, or look left or right. Most significantly, I think the visual technology utterly alters the entire perception of space at the show. The band is just one tiny element of a cinemascape that is absolutely enormous. At various moments it encompasses all of Las Vegas, or the entire Nevada desert, and it just feels real, and so so huge.

Unlike the audio, the visuals cut both ways: if they aren’t done right, they could detract. If they are done well (and they were here), they make for a truly unique experience.

3. U2 – For the General Public

Achtung Baby is a dark album. Really dark. In an effort to “chop down the Joshua Tree,” the sonic landscape explicitly avoids the cinematic quality of that earlier album – the one that lent itself so well to producing anthems that could bring 70,000 people in an ugly football stadium up on their feet. Many U2 fans think it’s their greatest album ever (it is), but not because of the sensation of hearing its “hits” played live. The album doesn’t have those kinds of hits. All of this makes the very idea of this show a real challenge: how do you keep 18,000 spectators engaged while playing all 12 tracks from this album?

The answer is a genius set list (spoilers coming!):

  • Start with the most rocking tracks from Achtung Baby
  • Break in the middle for a completely unexpected but brilliantly intimate acoustic-set of songs from Rattle and Hum
  • Conclude with the darkest and least well-known tracks from Achtung Baby, letting Edge’s genius carry the show (the solos on Acrobat and Love is Blindness are two of his best ever, and here they are both played in a three-song sequence)
  • Finish with an encore of hits everyone knows

4. U2 – For Groupies

This was my 25th U2 show, so I obviously fit in this category. It wasn’t my top show on that long list, but it was unique and therefore has a special place. Any fan who has seen them live multiple times absolutely must see this show for a few reasons. First, no matter how many times you’ve seen them, you’ve never heard the band like this. It’s extraordinary. Second, because there are gems in this set list that most fans have been waiting for decades to hear: “So Cruel” had only been played a couple of times, but not in 30 years and never with the full band; Acrobat and Love is Blindness are also very rare (and you know you get to hear them); and I just don’t think any fan was expecting four tracks from Rattle and Hum in one set (though these are not guaranteed – looks like they changed it up the next night).

Finally, I actually thought it was a great experience to hear the band with Bram van den Berg. The dude can play the drums. And while he said exactly the right words for the fans when Bono introduced him – “I know it’s a big deal” – he doesn’t play them just like Larry. There was an added riff in Even Better that was super cool. And during the Rattle and Hum set one could hear quite a bit more funk coming out of his kit than one ever heard in Larry’s. Like everyone else, I want Larry back as soon as he’s healthy, but unlike some famous youtubers who said U2 just shouldn’t ever play again, I thoroughly enjoyed Bram and the boys.

My critique? I didn’t love the encore, and I kind of hated the crowd. Starting with the latter, we were in the 200 level and almost everyone sat for 95% of the concert (and at one point the people behind us asked us to sit down). Aside from one particularly horrible experience at Soldier Field in 1996, it was the worst crowd U2 crowd I’ve ever been in. Surely much of that is just that the fans are super old now – it was basically the first show for me where I intentionally avoided the floor, because I didn’t want to stand for 12 hours – especially for a show to hear this old album at these high ticket prices. But the Sphere also plays into this: it’s more like being at the opera or the theater than at a club or even a stadium concert. The shape of the place, the super steep seating, and the fact that the floor is way below you (it’s all balconies) – all puts you in a position to watch what’s happening on stage (or on screen) rather than being a part of it.

This surely played into my dissatisfaction with the last batch of songs. The encore starts with Elevation and Vertigo, sandwiching their new track, “Atomic City” in between. Those two hits from the 00s were successful because everyone in the arena was literally jumping up and down. Without that, they just didn’t rock as hard. Streets finally got everyone on their feet (way too late), and With or Without You never fails to impress, but they closed with Beautiful Day, literally my least favorite U2 song live. Starting with HTDAAB, U2 has repeatedly tried to manufacture hits (Vertigo, Sexy Boots, American Soul), and it never works; they somehow forget that their hugest hits were songs that should have never been hits according to any algorithm, e.g., With or Without You, Still Haven’t Found.

It didn’t really matter that the closer was not what I wanted. I got so many treats along the way. And if I could afford it, with the sound and comfort and spectacle of the Sphere, I’d literally see them every night. I’m already kicking myself for not buying tickets for the December shows when they first dropped, and now I’m hoping they decide to come back in 2024. See you there, degens.

Book Review – Coming to Las Vegas: a true tale of sex, drugs, & Sin City in the 70s

One for the Vegas Fans

A look through the blog posts here or a follow of the Degen Social Club Twitter feed makes it clear that on the whole the club enjoys Las Vegas. In particular this reviewer keeps up on the city from afar, and reads up on the subject often. So there is a certain affinity already for the subject matter of Carolyn V. Hamilton’s memoir, “Coming To Las Vegas: a true tale of sex, drugs, & Sin City in the 70s”.

In addition, the 70s themselves hold an innate appeal for people of a certain age. Not at all old enough to have experienced the decade in the way that Hamilton did, but this reviewer is old enough to remember the times. So when Hamilton describes an ad exec “wearing a purple jumpsuit with a white patent-leather belt” or a room with “dark wood paneling and olive green carpeting” there is a recognition and clear evocation of place and setting (often ridiculous, but clear nevertheless).

For most people, though, the allure is going to be found right in the title: sex and drugs in a decade known for an excess of both. Hamilton delivers on the promise of the title.

Having been a Playboy Bunny at the Playboy club in Detroit, and then working as a designer in advertising in Los Angeles in 1972, she meets an older man with a past she fines intriguing. He convinces Hamilton to move to Las Vegas with him, and she soon finds herself working as a cocktail waitress at the newly opened MGM Grand.

The book recounts Hamilton’s time as a cocktail waitress, her escapades with her colleagues, and the constant opportunity to cross ethical lines for personal advantage, both financial and sexual.

Those opportunities are the result of a work environment plagued by harassment, abuse, and a constant power play within teams, across roles like bartender and waitress, and between labor and management. It is a world dominated by “juice”, the patronage that helps people find and hold on to jobs in a town dominated by one industry run as a club.

Hamilton also paints a picture of Las Vegas when the Dunes and the Stardust were anchors on the Strip, and land that is now positioned between major arenas was a trailer park.

That is where the Vegas fans are going to really enjoy the book. Hamilton visits the Bootlegger, now a staple on lists of “old school Las Vegas joints”, when it premieres. She meets André Rochat when he opens his first venue (a bakery), long before he is renowned for restaurants at the Monte Carlo and Palms. She talks about going to the Village Pub opened by Frank Ellis behind the MGM Grand and the Vegas nerds are going to think “wait, is that the original Ellis Island?”

Not to mention that the Kirk Kerkorian’s MGM Grand Hotel is at the center of it all. Having been rebranded twice (first to Bally’s and now the Horseshoe Las Vegas), the original MGM Grand is probably best known now for a deadly fire that took place in 1980.

That is not the MGM Grand that Hamilton describes. Instead we get a view of what the MGM Grand was when it opened – a 2,100 room resort meant to compete directly with Caesars Palace. Thousands applied to work there, celebrities toasted the opening, and Hamilton was there for it.

Those stories, and of course the sex and drugs (plus all that wood paneling), make the book a fun read.

Vegas Bars to Visit at Least Once According to Thrillist

Rob Kachelreiss has assembled a list of Vegas Bars to Visit At Least Once in a Lifetime for online lifestyle Web site Thrillist.

I have written in the past about how list articles are flawed. This article could be criticized in the same way (arbitrary, subjective) but I appreciate that this is not a “best of” type list but a sampling of places you should experience for different reasons. That’s reasonable. So let’s look at the list, noting which ones the degen social club has visited as a group, which ones individual members have visited, and some notes.

BDSC and the Thrillist Vegas Bars to Visit At Least Once in a Lifetime
Bar BDSC
Visit
Individual
Visit
The Laundry Room No Dollar Bill
Rosina No No
Atomic Liquors Yes
Herbs & Rye No No
Delmonico No No
The Golden Tiki Yes
Able-Baker Brewing No No
Oak & Ivy No No
Sand Dollar Lounge Yes*
Garagiste Wine Bar Yes
Pioneer Saloon No No
Velveteen Rabbit No No
Ghostbar No Sleepy
Downtown Cocktail Room Yes
SkyBar No Dollar Bill

So at least one member of the club has been to half of the bars listed. Now some notes.

The Laundry Room Speakeasy inside Commonwealth downtown on Fremont street. Bill visited with a couple people and said there was not room for much more. Bar was good and it felt cool to know how to get in.

Rosina Cocktail lounge inside Venetian. Looks tony. There are a fair number of tony bars on the Strip now (for example, Bound in the Cromwell, which the degens have been to).

Atomic Liquors Dive-y bar further along Fremont East with a long history. Not anything we actively try to repeat but it was fun to do. Next door Kitchen at Atomic is quite good but we would probably stop at 7th and Carson or Carson Kitchen before getting there from downtown hotels.

Herbs & Rye Highly well regarded bar that we probably should visit sometime (and maybe pair with a meal at sister restaurant Cleaver).

The Golden Tiki Chinatown Tiki room that delivers a great atmosphere and well made tiki drinks along with tasty food. This has higher production values than Frankie’s Tiki room, but as a result feels a lot more contrived. Either could make this list, both are worth a visit.

Able-Baker Brewing Brewpub in the Arts District. The degens have been to the Silver Stamp nearby and would probably repeat that again.

Sand Dollar Lounge Putting an asterisk on this because the article lists the original Chinatown location, not the Sand Dollar Downtown at the Plaza that the degens visited. But the article does reference the downtown location and even uses artwork from that locale. Would easily repeat we had a blast catching live music here.

Garagiste Wine Bar Downtown right across the street from Esther’s kitchen. When Esther’s moves and James Trees opens a French restaurant in its place we will absolutely return here for the double.

Pioneer Saloon Half hour out of town on the way to Cali. Looks great. This will be one for the degens to cross off the list sometime.

Velveteen Rabbit Bar in the Arts District. Does not seem especially compelling, but maybe if in the area?

Ghostbar Storied rooftop bar at the Palms. Absolutely worth doing once, but aren’t there lots of good elevated bars now in town (Circa, Resorts World, Delano)?

SkyBar Elegant lounge at the top of the Waldorf Astoria (formerly the Mandarin Oriental) on the Strip. Bill loves this place. We should all go with partners as he has, and do the group outings elsewhere.

Kachelreiss has delivered a list of good bars of various kinds worth visiting. If the topic is “worth visiting once in a lifetime” one would think that it would tilt more to the off the beaten path places that a Vegas tourist would not typically visit (such as Pioneer Saloon and Herbs & Rye). On the whole though, the bars are not on the Strip or inside the big hotels.

I can quibble about individual selections. Certainly there are omissions. Fireside Lounge inside the Peppermill definitely seems to qualify. Chandelier or Vesper at the Cosmopolitan Las Vegas are definitely not off the beaten path, but if you have not been to them, you should visit.

Overall, not bad. And it would seem the degens are hitting the right kind of spots when in Las Vegas.

“The Card Counter” Depletes the Deck

Tiffany Haddish and Oscar Isaac in “The Card Counter” (2021)

There are a large number of scenes in “The Card Counter” (2021) that take place in casinos, especially at blackjack tables and in poker rooms, but this is not a gambling movie.

There is really only one hand of action where we get to see the run of play in detail. In a hand of no limit hold ’em relatively early in a tournament, William Tell (played by Oscar Isaac) opens with a pair of kings in early position. A player in middle position calls with ace-deuce off-suit, and a third player calls with a pair of sevens. The flop comes nine-nine-eight, Tell makes a continuation bet. Middle position woman calls, the pair of sevens drops out. The turn card is a jack, Tell bets, woman calls. The river brings an ace, and Tell goes all in. The woman with ace-deuce thinks about it for a while, and then decides to fold.

I include this hand description for two reasons. One, for anyone who might want to see this movie for silver screen depiction of gambling, you now have all the action the movie delivers outside of wonderfully shot interior scenes of casinos by cinematographer Alexander Dynan.

More importantly, this hand is a good representation of what writer and director  Paul Schrader does with the entire movie: set up dramatic moments where characters act in ways that make no sense.

In the hand described above, the woman in middle position should not fold to this bet on the end. As she is calling bets, she has very little to improve her hand outside of an ace coming on the board. When her card comes, and Tell bets everything, a call is a pretty easy decision. And that is not what she does.

This is sadly where we end up with all of our major dramatic characters. We meet them, tension builds, and then they act in ways that have not been established well, if at all.

We learn early in the movie that Tell has done time in prison. He liked the routine there. He used the time to teach himself cards and hone his memory. Once outside, he wanders from casino to casino as an “advantage player” using his skill to win at poker and blackjack, but with modest sums to avoid attention while still allowing him to eke out an existence he seems comfortable with.

Something clearly lurks beneath that stated inner peace, however. Tell has a bizarre ritual around his personal space, and his dreams are haunted. Nevertheless, he is coping, and he makes his way to his next casino.

La Linda (Tiffany Haddish) spots his talent. She is a backer of poker players and offers Tell an arrangement to play for larger stakes in exchange for a share of the winnings. Tell declines, citing his preference for small time play and a lack of obligation, and references his next destination. There is a conference of law enforcement officers in Atlantic City, and he figures them to be cocky overconfident marks.

In Atlantic City, Tell seems to stroll randomly through the conference and ends up in a sparsely attended, droll product pitch made by Gordo (Willem Dafoe).

Cirk (Tye Sheridan) spots Tell in that product pitch, recognizes him by another name, indicates a shared history with Gordo, and wants to talk.It turns out that Gordo is at the root of Tell’s nightmares. Cirk is similarly troubled and wants Tell to join him in a quest for retribution.

There we have it. Characters introduced. Tension. A choice for our protagonist. The cards are laid out well.

Act II starts off interestingly enough, as Tell seeks to resolve this tension by agreeing to join up with La Linda and making Cirk a counter offer that he thinks will take the younger man on a different path.

From there, things fall apart, and not in a believable way. The relationship between Cirk and Tell is missing any real depth. Cirk’s dialogue amount to little more than “I don’t know, what do you want to do?” which does not allow for a lunch choice, let alone drive a move plot forward. La Linda and Tell have chemistry, but the same knowing caution that characterized the start of their partnership is in no way acknowledged as they grow closer. Gordo looms as an idea, but without any real presence aside from one additional flashback.

This is a dark arts house movie. It does not need a happy ending.  Tragedy is all about knowing what is coming. Watching the hero and understanding their tragic flaw is like counting cards and seeing the deck get depleted of aces and tens when counting cards. We know where the story is going.

But the end should make sense. When we reach the climax of the action in “The Card Counter”, choices do not make sense because of that overall lack of development.  Just like Tell raising and seeing that woman fold ace-deuce on the river.

 

Book Review – The Secret Apartment: Vet Stadium, a surreal memoir

Stories Any Sports Fan Wish They Could Tell

I’m going to let you in on a secret about “The Secret Apartment: Vet Stadium, a surreal memoir” by Tom Garvey. Most of the action happens outside the apartment.

Which makes perfect sense. Tom Garvey opens his book asking the question, “If you were single…no dependents…had an opportunity to live in a major sports stadium of a team you grew up loving,  what would you have done?”

It is a great hook for a story. Many would answer yes. Answering the question is one thing, pulling it off is another. And a secret arrangement like that will not stay that way if things get out of hand in the apartment.

This is fine for the reader. The same circumstances and personality traits that make a secret apartment possible also lead to fantastic stories.  Garvey has family connections that give him access to the stadium, and by extension, celebrity athletes and media personalities.  He has a position with just enough authority that he can make this happen, but not so much responsibility or equity that he would not risk it for some good times. He has nothing holding him down as a provider, and he associates with other free spirits.

Philadelphia sports feature prominently, but not exclusively, and the names are big enough for general North American sports fans to recognize. Veterans Stadium gets top billing, but the Rose Bowl, New Orleans, and points in play roles as well.

Tom pays homage to his family as much as his sporting heroes. And he makes explicit reference to “Cannery Row” while the reader may have already made the connection from Tom and his roster of friends.

This is a memoir of more than his time at the Vet. So the secret apartment is less central to Tom’s story, and more emblematic of how he has lived his life.

It’s worth a read.

 

Larry Flynt, Hustler

Anyone claiming the title of degenerate, even playfully, has to acknowledge a kinship with Larry Flynt. His association with skin mags, strip clubs, and a card barn in Los Angeles is unapologetically in your face.

The brand name for all of those ventures was “Hustler”. And that name, rather than degenerate, is more appropriate for the man, if not as obvious.

Larry Flynt grew up in a Kentucky county that was one of the poorest in the nation. He faked a birth certificate to join the US Army at 15, took a job with General Motors after an honorable discharge, and then signed up with the US Navy after a labor slowdown at his site.

He bought his mother’s bar, “Keewee” in Dayon, Ohio,  for cash, popped amphetamines to work hours on end there, and managed to take ownership of two more bars. He ran a vending machine business (a money loser, he closed that up), and then hit his stride with the “Hustler Club” featuring nude dancers. He opened five more clubs in Ohio. Along the way he bought a newspaper “Bachelor’s Beat”, an initial entry into publishing.

Flynt had a flair for promotion and irreverent attitude to social norms. He started a newsletter to promote his clubs, and when the ’73 oil crisis nearly bankrupted his clubs, he put everything into expanding his newsletter as a nationwide skin magazine with the “Hustler” title.

It was nude pictures of Jackie Kennedy Onassis that brought that fledgling publication notoriety, attention, and most importantly, sales. Publicly, Jackie O fumed and asked her husband to sue publishers of the photos. Privately, she signed a copy of one picture for Andy Warhol. Flynt resented that kind of hypocrisy, and fought against it for the rest of his life.

Flynt took pop-shots at comstockery figures such as Jerry Falwell, and battled in court to do so. A Supreme Court decision protecting parody features the magazine name.

His willingness to outrage led him to publish provocative images.  From the 1978 cover depicting a woman passed through a food mill (lampooning criticisms that his magazine treated women like meat) to a 2017 cover featuring a model wearing an American flag as a (rather poorly concealing) hijab, Flynt loved thumbing his nose at critics and hypocrites.

A racist, unhappy with Flynt’s publishing nude pictorials of interracial couples, shot him and cost Flynt mobility for the rest of his life.

But not his hustle. That never went away.

That shooting happened in 1978. Flynt did not open the Hustler Card Room in California until 2000. At the time of his death it was the most profitable part of his business portfolio.

Flynt was certainly a degenerate. He knew you were, too, most likely. He’d happily take your money if you admitted it,  laugh at you for suggesting you were above it, and fight you in court if you tried to stop him from doing either of those things. Hustler, indeed.

Superbowl LV Prop Bets

You can find a PDF of the Westgate Superbook prop bets here: https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2021/jan/28/super-bowl-55-props-westgate-super-book-full-packe/

Here are the props I like:

  • Will Harrison Butker (KC) miss at least one extra point? Yes +450 / No -600 – Butker was a perfect 5 for 5 in the AFC championship,. but 1/2 in the Divisional round, and in all of 2020 (including playoffs) 54/61. If you take that seasonal rate and project just two attempts for Butker, then the implied odds of missing one are 21%. The Yes is good value here.
  • Will Mecole Hardman (KC) have a rushing attempt? Yes +130 / No -150 – In the AFC Championship game, Hardman had a  thrilling 50 yard run that helped put away the game for KC. It came after he had muffed a punt that cost KC dearly. I think that rush was called as much for his confidence as anything. And he had a rush in the Divisional game, too. This is the kind of pattern that KC will likely want to avoid against TB, except maybe as a decoy. Mecole only had 6 rushes all year. I like the NO here.
  • Total QB sacks by KC Defense 1½ – Over -140 /  Under +120 – Including the playoffs, Tom Brady has been sacked 26 times this year in 19 games. And in the playoffs, 3 of the 5 sacks came at the hands of a very good Washington Football Team pass rush. This really is a small number, but as an underdog bet, I like the under.
  • Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (TB) 15½ yards – Over -110 / Under -110 – Rob Gronkowski has great name recognition among NFL fans, but the primary TE target for TB is Cameron Brate. Gronk had 0 receptions in the wild card game, 5 for 14 yards total in the divisional game, and one lone TE screen pass that broke for 29 yards late in the NFC Championship game. He simply is not a big part of the plan for TB and I like this under.
  • Total Number of Different Buccaneers to Have a Rush Attempt 3½  – Over -110 / Under -110 – In poker hands you count outs. How many cards help you make a hand. And sometimes you have to estimate what an unlikely scenario (such as going runner-runner for a flush) is worth in terms of outs and add that in. This bet is all about outs. For sure one expects Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette to have rushes. Brady is almost certainly good for a sneak at some point. So the question is, where are the outs for a 4th rusher? Vaughn had 4 attempts against Washington in the Wild Card round, and Antonio Brown got in the act, too. Against Green Bay, Chris Godwin found a rushing attempt. And LeSean McCoy might get himself a handoff (although winning a ring with the Chiefs last year lessens the chance they do this for a veteran to get his name in the books). That is enough outs for me, though. Taking the over.

Update – I certainly did not think Butker would have zero attempts to miss that extra point. And Gronk was a major part of the attack. But the other bets hit and I came out ahead on these props.

My Superbowl LI Prop Bets
Prop Amount Result
Will Harrison Butker (KC) miss at least one extra point? Yes +450 50 -50
Will Mecole Hardman (KC) have a rushing attempt? No -150 150 100
Total QB sacks by KC Defense 1½ – Under +120 100 120
Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (TB) 15½ yards -Under -110 110 -110
Total Number of Different Buccaneers to Have a Rush Attempt 3½  – Over -110 55 50
Total +110

Understanding Lottery Odds

The single biggest reason that lotteries work as well as they do is that people easily envision what they would do with a tremendous windfall of money. It is not just easy. It is enjoyable. You are doing it right now, and there is not even a prize number mentioned here.

In fact, exploring that daydream is really what you are paying for – the thought exercise, made a little more believable because you have tickets in your hand.

Because while people can readily grasp the scope of the cash prize, and the fantasies of partying, purchasing, or philanthropy that it would enable, almost no one can readily grasp the true odds of winning the thing.

This is not surprising. People are notoriously bad at using probability and estimating risks in their everyday lives, and those are usually around events with likelihoods of one part in hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands.

As gambling has spread, though, through casinos proliferating through the United States, the popularity of poker, and the coming explosion of legalized sports wagering in the US, people are becoming more accustomed to games of chance, and event frequency.

That should help to illustrate what lottery odds truly represent.

Let’s start by defining the odds we are trying to envision. As an example, the chances of winning a lottery that uses 49 balls and selects 6 balls is roughly one in 14 million.

What other events come close to those odds?

  • Being dealt pocket aces three times in a row in a game of Hold ‘Em. That is actually shy of the odds. A better estimate is expressed as being dealt either pocket kings or pocket aces for four hands in a row.
  • Craps “all or nothing at all bet” – 4 times in a row.
  • Craps – The “all or nothing at all” bet is a maybe a bit obscure. So let’s look at the simplest bet there is at the table. One in 14 million is around 27 winning pass line bets in a row. The longest known craps run happened at the Borgata in 2009.  That was 25 pass line winners in a row.
  • Pick 12 out of 12 NFL games correctly against the spread on a Sunday. Then do it again the next week.
  • Getting blackjack 5 hands in a row. And that is only about 4 million to 1 against. That is about 3 times more likely than winning the lottery.
  • The odds of hitting the lottery are equivalent to your chances of seeing an MLB pitcher throw a perfect game, and in that same game have one of his teammates hit for the cycle.

Oh and Mega Millions? The odds of hitting that jackpot are 1 in 300 million. So any of these events described above are about 20 times more likely to happen.

Unlike the lottery, many of these are not events you could directly bet on. But some of them are.

You certainly could put in a 12 team parlay on an NFL Sunday. The payout for that means a significant edge for the house, but a 3000-1 payout is not bad in absolute terms (and as discussed, is far more likely than hitting the lottery).

You could also just pool money and keep pressing an 1-to-1 payout bet like a hand of blackjack. Table limits are on purpose designed to reach a limit on this at some point, but generally limits allow for a 100-times spread in bets. Meaning you could start with a $50 bet and if you hit 7 times in a row you hit the table limit. Would you and a few friends not be happy walking away with a $6,350 in winnings? Would you not have a hell of a story to tell for your $50 gamble if it even made 4 or 5 wins a row?

No, that is not likely to happen. But it is thousands of times more likely than hitting the lottery.

So why not pool your money and try that instead of buying lottery tickets?

Holiday Gift Ideas for Gamblers

Preventative measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 are limiting social contact and outings.

But that opens up some ideas for gift giving that meet the needs of the gambler stuck at home.

  • Content Subscriptions With the spread of legal sports gambling across the US (including a successful ballot measure in Maryland that should lead to options in the state in 2021) there is also a growing amount of quality content out there available for those that want to be better informed bettors or just see some more of the action.
    • VSiN, Action Network, and for football only, Football Outsiders all offer premium packages of statistics and betting analysis at prices between $100 and $250 per year. If you have a gambler in your life regularly putting that kind of bet in on games, then that kind of helpful information will be welcome. For the casual bettor, VSiN offers a subscription just to their streaming video content for $25/year. This is a bargain and a good gift of entertaining hosts delivering quality information.
    • If you have a boxing fan, DAZN (pronounced “da zone”) is available for $100/year and has fight cards available on the regular.
    • Poker coaching sites offer video series, self-contained packages, and even live coaching offerings. Run it Once offers a variety of packages in different price ranges.
  • Event Buy-Ins are a way to give a gift that gets them directly into the action. By arranging for the buy-in, or picking an event and giving the funds and making it clear wha they are for, you can let your gambler feel like they already won with a free-roll entry.
    • Daily Fantasy Sports – if you know they like to play Fantasy Sports, consider buying them into a one day event. Because these are regulated sites you may not be able to do this in every state. You should be able to find something that matches location, sport of interest, and price range. For instance FanDuel operates in Maryland and 42 other states, and has one-day single entry fantasy football tournaments at price points anywhere from $1 to hundreds of dollars for an entry fee.
    • Poker Tournament entry fee. Yes, there are online options but this is more restricted by state. New Jersey and Pennsylvania have regulated card rooms online. Maryland does not. But if your gambler plays with a group online, ask their friends what they do for contests. You might be able to find one and buy them in.
  • Retroactive Casino Souvenir – it has probably been a while since they were in a casino. And they might not be the kind to buy themselves a souvenir. So why not pick one up for them? A mug, glass, or cap from their last trip would be a nice way to invoke the good times and remind them that they’ll be able to make that trip again some time. You may have to call casinos as gift shops rarely have online store fronts, but the front desks will connect you and they will gladly sell and ship these days.
  • Home Office Setup – a common theme here has been the gambling experience online. So why not address that online presence by updating a display, or headphones, or even something fun like a backlit keyboard? To go more elaborate, a new chair might be in order. Gamers have lots of experience looking for a comfortable chair and this PC Gamer review of chairs is a good place to start shopping.

How to Watch Circa Grand Opening

Tonight, October 27, is the grand opening for the Circa casino on Fremont Street in downtown Las Vegas. This social club has been making downtown its center of Vegas activity for years now, preferring to stay at The D, owned by Derek Stevens and the same group opening Circa.

In noted contrast to the publicly owned casinos on the Strip, Derek seems to embrace gamblers, cater to them, and promotes what gamblers want – a decent shot at the games and a damn good time.

Circa is a phenomenal addition to downtown. As a group we look forward to getting there sometime soon. But for tonight, if you want to get in on the action, here are some ways to do so remotely:

And although they will not be there, Vegas podcasters Five Hundy By Midnight will be doing a preview chat for their Patreon supporters at 7:30 PM Eastern tonight. Tim and Michelle do a wonderful job following Vegas happenings and sharing their visits. The community of listeners is also well informed, and should have interesting things to say ahead of the opening.