You can find a PDF of the Westgate Superbook prop bets here: https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2021/jan/28/super-bowl-55-props-westgate-super-book-full-packe/
Here are the props I like:
- Will Harrison Butker (KC) miss at least one extra point? Yes +450 / No -600 – Butker was a perfect 5 for 5 in the AFC championship,. but 1/2 in the Divisional round, and in all of 2020 (including playoffs) 54/61. If you take that seasonal rate and project just two attempts for Butker, then the implied odds of missing one are 21%. The Yes is good value here.
- Will Mecole Hardman (KC) have a rushing attempt? Yes +130 / No -150 – In the AFC Championship game, Hardman had a thrilling 50 yard run that helped put away the game for KC. It came after he had muffed a punt that cost KC dearly. I think that rush was called as much for his confidence as anything. And he had a rush in the Divisional game, too. This is the kind of pattern that KC will likely want to avoid against TB, except maybe as a decoy. Mecole only had 6 rushes all year. I like the NO here.
- Total QB sacks by KC Defense 1½ – Over -140 / Under +120 – Including the playoffs, Tom Brady has been sacked 26 times this year in 19 games. And in the playoffs, 3 of the 5 sacks came at the hands of a very good Washington Football Team pass rush. This really is a small number, but as an underdog bet, I like the under.
- Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (TB) 15½ yards – Over -110 / Under -110 – Rob Gronkowski has great name recognition among NFL fans, but the primary TE target for TB is Cameron Brate. Gronk had 0 receptions in the wild card game, 5 for 14 yards total in the divisional game, and one lone TE screen pass that broke for 29 yards late in the NFC Championship game. He simply is not a big part of the plan for TB and I like this under.
- Total Number of Different Buccaneers to Have a Rush Attempt 3½ – Over -110 / Under -110 – In poker hands you count outs. How many cards help you make a hand. And sometimes you have to estimate what an unlikely scenario (such as going runner-runner for a flush) is worth in terms of outs and add that in. This bet is all about outs. For sure one expects Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette to have rushes. Brady is almost certainly good for a sneak at some point. So the question is, where are the outs for a 4th rusher? Vaughn had 4 attempts against Washington in the Wild Card round, and Antonio Brown got in the act, too. Against Green Bay, Chris Godwin found a rushing attempt. And LeSean McCoy might get himself a handoff (although winning a ring with the Chiefs last year lessens the chance they do this for a veteran to get his name in the books). That is enough outs for me, though. Taking the over.
Update – I certainly did not think Butker would have zero attempts to miss that extra point. And Gronk was a major part of the attack. But the other bets hit and I came out ahead on these props.
|My Superbowl LI Prop Bets|
|Will Harrison Butker (KC) miss at least one extra point? Yes +450||50||-50|
|Will Mecole Hardman (KC) have a rushing attempt? No -150||150||100|
|Total QB sacks by KC Defense 1½ – Under +120||100||120|
|Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (TB) 15½ yards -Under -110||110||-110|
|Total Number of Different Buccaneers to Have a Rush Attempt 3½ – Over -110||55||50|